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Cheltenham festival 2018

Haven’t seen a thread on this yet so thought I would start one for all those that like their racing

I had massive beginner’s luck 3 years ago, sort of carried over 2 years ago, but last year was an absolute shower of shit

@smiffyboy and the other experts, where are we putting our money this year?
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  • edited February 9
    the 2nd best thread of the year to roland departing, as its now a case of when not if.

    as usual got a load of small stake accas,lucky15/31s on. mostly faves.

    do fancy petit mouchoir to turn over footpad in the arkle.

    also will be interesting to see how altior runs this weekend as currently evens for the queen mother.
  • edited February 9
    I've got very attractive antepost on:

    Samcro - Ballymore
    Laurina - Mares Novice
    Stormy Ireland - Triumph

    Pretty confident about the first two - the Triumph is a tough one to call as always.

    The first day looking good for backers with likely a lot of trebles on Footpad (11/10), Beveur D'air (1/2) and Apples Jade (4/6) - 17/4 treble. From a business perspective I would like one of those beat!!


  • My antepost shouts, best to worst:

    - SAMCRO to win any race @ 10/1. Looks like an unbelievable horse and one I'm really excited to watch come March. Is now odds on for the Ballymore.

    - LAURINA to win the Mares' Novices on bobmunro's advice at 12/1. Looks like a machine so here's hoping!

    - BLESS THE WINGS to win the Cross Country @ 33/1, each way. Travelled like an absolute dream over the course on his last outing and while there's a couple of risks, I'm happy with the shortening to 12/1.

    It all goes downhill from there, though Samcro covers everything (had a massive 3pts on it compared to 1/1.5 everywhere else). Hopefully.

    - BAMAKO MORIVIERE to win any race @ 20/1, e/w. Haven't heard a peep from him in ages.

    - TOMBSTONE to win any race @ 25/1 e/w. May spring a surprise in the JLT - most likely target for my mind - but is behind a lot of other likely types.

    - DAMALISQUE to win the Supreme @ 40/1, e/w. Hasn't raced in England yet, so... Yeah, probably going to be campaigned next year and we'll see what happens.

    - Pretty much everything I've done involving Yorkhill, Altior(??!???!), and Faugheen. Won't talk about that.

    ----------------------------------

    Bankers involving the following horses:

    - FOOTPAD for the Arkla
    - SAMCRO for the Ballymore
    - BUVEUR D'AIR for the Champion Hurdle
    - APPLES JADE for the Mares Hurdle
    - LAURINA for the Mares Novices

    All odds on/evs basically. They're all beast horses that will hopefully carve up.
  • PaddyP17 said:

    My antepost shouts, best to worst:

    - SAMCRO to win any race @ 10/1. Looks like an unbelievable horse and one I'm really excited to watch come March. Is now odds on for the Ballymore.

    - LAURINA to win the Mares' Novices on bobmunro's advice at 12/1. Looks like a machine so here's hoping!

    - BLESS THE WINGS to win the Cross Country @ 33/1, each way. Travelled like an absolute dream over the course on his last outing and while there's a couple of risks, I'm happy with the shortening to 12/1.

    It all goes downhill from there, though Samcro covers everything (had a massive 3pts on it compared to 1/1.5 everywhere else). Hopefully.

    - BAMAKO MORIVIERE to win any race @ 20/1, e/w. Haven't heard a peep from him in ages.

    - TOMBSTONE to win any race @ 25/1 e/w. May spring a surprise in the JLT - most likely target for my mind - but is behind a lot of other likely types.

    - DAMALISQUE to win the Supreme @ 40/1, e/w. Hasn't raced in England yet, so... Yeah, probably going to be campaigned next year and we'll see what happens.

    - Pretty much everything I've done involving Yorkhill, Altior(??!???!), and Faugheen. Won't talk about that.

    ----------------------------------

    Bankers involving the following horses:

    - FOOTPAD for the Arkla
    - SAMCRO for the Ballymore
    - BUVEUR D'AIR for the Champion Hurdle
    - APPLES JADE for the Mares Hurdle
    - LAURINA for the Mares Novices

    All odds on/evs basically. They're all beast horses that will hopefully carve up.

    Your top one, Paddy, is the bet of the century!! Most of my mates are on Samcro any race - I stuck with the Ballymore so here's hoping. Whatever race he runs in, he wins (barring a fall).
  • edited February 9
    agree with bob that's a great bet, shame to see the denman only consist of 3 runners tomorrow

    edit the same in altiors race, as a lot say folks would rather have a no hoper in a race at cheltenham - just to say we had a go at cheltenham, instead of a winner at bangor for example.
  • edited February 9
    Forgot to add, I've got Bacardys in the Stayers - NRNB - if he runs he will be much shorter.

    Like some horses, I'm in a race against time to be fit for Cheltenham - touch and go but if I can ditch these f*cking crutches in time I'll be there on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Rhinestone from Joseph O'Briens yard to win the Champion bumper.
    Fill your boots at 10/1
  • Managed to get decent amount on SAMCRO at 16s at the start of the season. And any accounts that have picked up free bets I've been lobbing on him. Started laying off some now he's gone odds on on Betfair, so want to leave myself in a situation where I make a couple of grand whatever, and around 25-30k if he goes in.

    Of the rest it's mostly pretty speculative. I tend to play at big prices.

    Backed PALOMA BLUE for the Supreme after last weekend at 50s. Was the only one to go with Samcro and he pulled hard throughout the race. Was 2nd in Grade 1 bumper to Fayonagh
    Can see JOHN CONSTABLE running big race in the Champion. Backed him ew at 66s, been running good races on ground he hates.
    KAYF GRACE in the mares at 50s. Backed her to win the Betfair on Saturday and think she wins that and then really serves it up to Apple's Jade. They're making a massive mistake going there fresh with AJ.
    ELEGANT ESCAPE at 50s in the four miler, but sounds like they're going to go RSA.
    Backed UN DE SCEAUX at 6s and 7s NRNB for the Champion Chase. He only runs if the ground is soft, but if it is he goes off much shorter price. And if he goes for Ryanair you get your money back. Also got decent chunk on ORDINARY WORLD at 50s. Loves good ground, and was going well on soft at Leopardstown before bad mistake at last.
    I do like SUSSEX RANGER in the Triumph. Did everything wrong last time and only just went down to We Have A Dream. He reminds me a bit of Detroit City in being a relentless galloper and can see the New Course suiting him. Backed him at 33s, but 20s is still too big.
    On MIGHT BITE at 12s, and think he could blast the field apart. Also had a bit on CONEY ISLAND at big prices on Betfair.

    Current things on my horizon that I'm trying to orchestrate to get on are BALKO DES FLOS in the Ryanair and TIGER ROLL in the X-Country.

    Look out for THE STORYTELLER in whichever handicap he rocks up in. And on the subject of handicaps take advantage of the extra place terms and perm a few horses in a few races in doubles and trebles. Your expected return on these is epic. Day One do Ultima/NH Chase/Nov Hcap. Day Two do Coral Cup/Fred Winter. Day Three do Pertemps/Plate. Day Four do County/Pipe/Grand Annual. I'll put aside a good chunk of my betting bank to perm 3 horses in each race and do 9 ew doubles, and 27 ew trebles. The place part is massively in your favour and you can cop a big payout if they all click. Missed out on Tiger Roll/Singlefarmpayment/Tully East treble last year by a nose!

    Whatever you do, DO NOT lump on the Day One treble of Footpad/Buveur D'Air/Apple's Jade. I'd expect bookmakers to start hyping this up soon. Maybe with Getabird in the Supreme, or Samcro. It is dreadful value.
  • Managed to get decent amount on SAMCRO at 16s at the start of the season. And any accounts that have picked up free bets I've been lobbing on him. Started laying off some now he's gone odds on on Betfair, so want to leave myself in a situation where I make a couple of grand whatever, and around 25-30k if he goes in.

    Of the rest it's mostly pretty speculative. I tend to play at big prices.

    Backed PALOMA BLUE for the Supreme after last weekend at 50s. Was the only one to go with Samcro and he pulled hard throughout the race. Was 2nd in Grade 1 bumper to Fayonagh
    Can see JOHN CONSTABLE running big race in the Champion. Backed him ew at 66s, been running good races on ground he hates.
    KAYF GRACE in the mares at 50s. Backed her to win the Betfair on Saturday and think she wins that and then really serves it up to Apple's Jade. They're making a massive mistake going there fresh with AJ.
    ELEGANT ESCAPE at 50s in the four miler, but sounds like they're going to go RSA.
    Backed UN DE SCEAUX at 6s and 7s NRNB for the Champion Chase. He only runs if the ground is soft, but if it is he goes off much shorter price. And if he goes for Ryanair you get your money back. Also got decent chunk on ORDINARY WORLD at 50s. Loves good ground, and was going well on soft at Leopardstown before bad mistake at last.
    I do like SUSSEX RANGER in the Triumph. Did everything wrong last time and only just went down to We Have A Dream. He reminds me a bit of Detroit City in being a relentless galloper and can see the New Course suiting him. Backed him at 33s, but 20s is still too big.
    On MIGHT BITE at 12s, and think he could blast the field apart. Also had a bit on CONEY ISLAND at big prices on Betfair.

    Current things on my horizon that I'm trying to orchestrate to get on are BALKO DES FLOS in the Ryanair and TIGER ROLL in the X-Country.

    Look out for THE STORYTELLER in whichever handicap he rocks up in. And on the subject of handicaps take advantage of the extra place terms and perm a few horses in a few races in doubles and trebles. Your expected return on these is epic. Day One do Ultima/NH Chase/Nov Hcap. Day Two do Coral Cup/Fred Winter. Day Three do Pertemps/Plate. Day Four do County/Pipe/Grand Annual. I'll put aside a good chunk of my betting bank to perm 3 horses in each race and do 9 ew doubles, and 27 ew trebles. The place part is massively in your favour and you can cop a big payout if they all click. Missed out on Tiger Roll/Singlefarmpayment/Tully East treble last year by a nose!

    Whatever you do, DO NOT lump on the Day One treble of Footpad/Buveur D'Air/Apple's Jade. I'd expect bookmakers to start hyping this up soon. Maybe with Getabird in the Supreme, or Samcro. It is dreadful value.

    The vast majority of everyday punters will though - tis the nature of the beast.
  • bobmunro said:

    Managed to get decent amount on SAMCRO at 16s at the start of the season. And any accounts that have picked up free bets I've been lobbing on him. Started laying off some now he's gone odds on on Betfair, so want to leave myself in a situation where I make a couple of grand whatever, and around 25-30k if he goes in.

    Of the rest it's mostly pretty speculative. I tend to play at big prices.

    Backed PALOMA BLUE for the Supreme after last weekend at 50s. Was the only one to go with Samcro and he pulled hard throughout the race. Was 2nd in Grade 1 bumper to Fayonagh
    Can see JOHN CONSTABLE running big race in the Champion. Backed him ew at 66s, been running good races on ground he hates.
    KAYF GRACE in the mares at 50s. Backed her to win the Betfair on Saturday and think she wins that and then really serves it up to Apple's Jade. They're making a massive mistake going there fresh with AJ.
    ELEGANT ESCAPE at 50s in the four miler, but sounds like they're going to go RSA.
    Backed UN DE SCEAUX at 6s and 7s NRNB for the Champion Chase. He only runs if the ground is soft, but if it is he goes off much shorter price. And if he goes for Ryanair you get your money back. Also got decent chunk on ORDINARY WORLD at 50s. Loves good ground, and was going well on soft at Leopardstown before bad mistake at last.
    I do like SUSSEX RANGER in the Triumph. Did everything wrong last time and only just went down to We Have A Dream. He reminds me a bit of Detroit City in being a relentless galloper and can see the New Course suiting him. Backed him at 33s, but 20s is still too big.
    On MIGHT BITE at 12s, and think he could blast the field apart. Also had a bit on CONEY ISLAND at big prices on Betfair.

    Current things on my horizon that I'm trying to orchestrate to get on are BALKO DES FLOS in the Ryanair and TIGER ROLL in the X-Country.

    Look out for THE STORYTELLER in whichever handicap he rocks up in. And on the subject of handicaps take advantage of the extra place terms and perm a few horses in a few races in doubles and trebles. Your expected return on these is epic. Day One do Ultima/NH Chase/Nov Hcap. Day Two do Coral Cup/Fred Winter. Day Three do Pertemps/Plate. Day Four do County/Pipe/Grand Annual. I'll put aside a good chunk of my betting bank to perm 3 horses in each race and do 9 ew doubles, and 27 ew trebles. The place part is massively in your favour and you can cop a big payout if they all click. Missed out on Tiger Roll/Singlefarmpayment/Tully East treble last year by a nose!

    Whatever you do, DO NOT lump on the Day One treble of Footpad/Buveur D'Air/Apple's Jade. I'd expect bookmakers to start hyping this up soon. Maybe with Getabird in the Supreme, or Samcro. It is dreadful value.

    The vast majority of everyday punters will though - tis the nature of the beast.
    Friendly prices evaporated after a couple years back where I think nearly half the races were won by short-priced favourites?

    It's the way it is. I've not got the Day One treble in isolation, because it's very easily opposed, but all those horses look so good.
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  • PolzeathNick I'm definitely going to have a look at some of those and see where there's still some form of value! Looks like a great selection
  • PaddyP17 said:

    bobmunro said:

    Managed to get decent amount on SAMCRO at 16s at the start of the season. And any accounts that have picked up free bets I've been lobbing on him. Started laying off some now he's gone odds on on Betfair, so want to leave myself in a situation where I make a couple of grand whatever, and around 25-30k if he goes in.

    Of the rest it's mostly pretty speculative. I tend to play at big prices.

    Backed PALOMA BLUE for the Supreme after last weekend at 50s. Was the only one to go with Samcro and he pulled hard throughout the race. Was 2nd in Grade 1 bumper to Fayonagh
    Can see JOHN CONSTABLE running big race in the Champion. Backed him ew at 66s, been running good races on ground he hates.
    KAYF GRACE in the mares at 50s. Backed her to win the Betfair on Saturday and think she wins that and then really serves it up to Apple's Jade. They're making a massive mistake going there fresh with AJ.
    ELEGANT ESCAPE at 50s in the four miler, but sounds like they're going to go RSA.
    Backed UN DE SCEAUX at 6s and 7s NRNB for the Champion Chase. He only runs if the ground is soft, but if it is he goes off much shorter price. And if he goes for Ryanair you get your money back. Also got decent chunk on ORDINARY WORLD at 50s. Loves good ground, and was going well on soft at Leopardstown before bad mistake at last.
    I do like SUSSEX RANGER in the Triumph. Did everything wrong last time and only just went down to We Have A Dream. He reminds me a bit of Detroit City in being a relentless galloper and can see the New Course suiting him. Backed him at 33s, but 20s is still too big.
    On MIGHT BITE at 12s, and think he could blast the field apart. Also had a bit on CONEY ISLAND at big prices on Betfair.

    Current things on my horizon that I'm trying to orchestrate to get on are BALKO DES FLOS in the Ryanair and TIGER ROLL in the X-Country.

    Look out for THE STORYTELLER in whichever handicap he rocks up in. And on the subject of handicaps take advantage of the extra place terms and perm a few horses in a few races in doubles and trebles. Your expected return on these is epic. Day One do Ultima/NH Chase/Nov Hcap. Day Two do Coral Cup/Fred Winter. Day Three do Pertemps/Plate. Day Four do County/Pipe/Grand Annual. I'll put aside a good chunk of my betting bank to perm 3 horses in each race and do 9 ew doubles, and 27 ew trebles. The place part is massively in your favour and you can cop a big payout if they all click. Missed out on Tiger Roll/Singlefarmpayment/Tully East treble last year by a nose!

    Whatever you do, DO NOT lump on the Day One treble of Footpad/Buveur D'Air/Apple's Jade. I'd expect bookmakers to start hyping this up soon. Maybe with Getabird in the Supreme, or Samcro. It is dreadful value.

    The vast majority of everyday punters will though - tis the nature of the beast.
    Friendly prices evaporated after a couple years back where I think nearly half the races were won by short-priced favourites?

    It's the way it is. I've not got the Day One treble in isolation, because it's very easily opposed, but all those horses look so good.
    Yes they do all look good and will entice a lot of money - one of the three beaten will do me! So many people just back favourites blind and have little concept of value.

    I'm sure you can imagine the loudness of the cheer that went up in the industry three years ago when Annie fell at the last in the Mares!!

  • That's absolutely abhorrent if true that there were cheers at that horse falling. Hopefully you just mean metaphorical cheers as the horse was very lucky to survive.
  • The hardest thing I find to explain to your everyday casual punter is the concept of value. Yes your odds on shot is more likely to win that your 33/1 outsider. But you've got to assess each horse in isolation.

    If you think the even money favourite has a 75% chance of winning, then by all means fill your boots. But bookies won't get things that wrong on the shorties as the information about them is so well known. I tend to find that if I think a 33/1 chance has a 10% chance of winning or more is more easy to find, but that's just personal preference. You have to take a lot of losers on the chin, but long term it works. I try to visualise a bet as just one in a long sequence of bets.
  • edited February 9

    That's absolutely abhorrent if true that there were cheers at that horse falling. Hopefully you just mean metaphorical cheers as the horse was very lucky to survive.

    Cheers that the horse was beaten - of course not cheers that a horse may have been injured, or worse. Any cheers would have immediately turned to sorrow if Annie had been killed or injured.

    No different if a horse you had backed was a distant second and the leader falls - have you ever backed a horse in that situation - have you heard a crowd cheer when the second was a heavily backed favourite and that happens - and the change from cheers to near silence when the horse doesn't rise? Imagine if Annie had been second and the leader had fallen? The roar that would have gone up.

    Every backer, layer, owner, trainer, jockey, racing publication, racing journalist, breeder, racecourse operator has blood on their hands. You are in that list and so am I - and I can tick three of that list.

    Hypocritical bullshit.

  • Slightly off topic, but look at Newbury tomorrow - a grand total of 6 runners for the 2 big graded races.
    What a spectacle they'll be!
  • Slightly off topic, but look at Newbury tomorrow - a grand total of 6 runners for the 2 big graded races.
    What a spectacle they'll be!

    exactly, its quite a farce
  • bobmunro said:

    That's absolutely abhorrent if true that there were cheers at that horse falling. Hopefully you just mean metaphorical cheers as the horse was very lucky to survive.

    Cheers that the horse was beaten - of course not cheers that a horse may have been injured, or worse. Any cheers would have immediately turned to sorrow if Annie had been killed or injured.

    No different if a horse you had backed was a distant second and the leader falls - have you ever backed a horse in that situation - have you heard a crowd cheer when the second was a heavily backed favourite and that happens - and the change from cheers to near silence when the horse doesn't rise? Imagine if Annie had been second and the leader had fallen?



    off topic but at lepordstown at the weekend the biggest cheer of the day was when one of the horses got up after the dreaded green fences had been put up
  • Anyone going to Cheltenham during the festival? Me and the old man are going on the first day
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  • sam3110 said:

    Anyone going to Cheltenham during the festival? Me and the old man are going on the first day

    Yep go all 4 days, stay in a B&B in Broadway that managed to get into a few years ago and just book each year as I leave on the Friday morning. Tend to stick in the members area to avoid the crowds, but go out for the latter races once crowds disperse a bit.
  • bobmunro said:

    That's absolutely abhorrent if true that there were cheers at that horse falling. Hopefully you just mean metaphorical cheers as the horse was very lucky to survive.

    Cheers that the horse was beaten - of course not cheers that a horse may have been injured, or worse. Any cheers would have immediately turned to sorrow if Annie had been killed or injured.

    No different if a horse you had backed was a distant second and the leader falls - have you ever backed a horse in that situation - have you heard a crowd cheer when the second was a heavily backed favourite and that happens - and the change from cheers to near silence when the horse doesn't rise? Imagine if Annie had been second and the leader had fallen? The roar that would have gone up.

    Every backer, layer, owner, trainer, jockey, racing publication, racing journalist, breeder, racecourse operator has blood on their hands. You are in that list and so am I - and I can tick three of that list.

    Hypocritical bullshit.

    No doubt it can be a horrendous game sometimes. But the increase in people who cheer at potentially life threatening situations is definitely on the rise. Two instances spring to mind immediately, and I'm glad to say I had a go at the people at the time. A few days after JT McNamara suffered a fall that would ultimately take his life, there were people people cheering a horse veering off in the Foxhunters when set to win. The jockey was unshipped in a horrible way, and people celebrated the fav coming to win the race. And last year when Let's Dance won the Mares Novice, there were people doing that "Ruby, Ruby" chant, whilst Toe The Line was being put down no more than 50yards away from them. Credit to Ruby where it's due as he told them to stop, but it sums up the idiots you get at the racing these days.
    On all of that we are in agreement.
  • edited February 9
    sam3110 said:

    Anyone going to Cheltenham during the festival? Me and the old man are going on the first day

    I normally go the first two days - day 1 is my favourite day overall, and the Queen Mum is my favourite race of the festival.

    These days I'm lucky that the hotel is booked for me and I'm entertained in a box - but for many years I would wander the course soaking up the atmosphere wherever I could find it.

    For those four days in mid-March (it was better when it was three) Cheltenham is the greatest place on the planet (and I'm a flat man!!).
  • there Wednesday and Thursday, we stay in Birmingham as relatively easy to get to and from cheltenham and more importantly cheap the only pain is if having a good drink up after in cheltenham you need to keep an eye on getting the train back to Birmingham.

    lucked in this year bought tattersalls tickets for both days and the ticket office sent me tags for club enclosure for both days.

    agree with others there is no where quite like it, although the crowd does seem to be getting a bit more ascot, wearing a suit and acting like a twat as opposed to watching the greatest show on turf.
  • Going Thursday.
  • sam3110 said:

    Anyone going to Cheltenham during the festival? Me and the old man are going on the first day

    Giving it a miss this year. Have been to most since 1993 but have to say that I and my mates find it all too much of an effort. There have been a hell of a lot of changes over the last 25 years and hardly any of them for the better. Not saying I won't go again, I need to introduce my sons to the festival, but I find The Hennessey (as was) meeting at Newbury a far more comfortable and enjoyable day.
  • Eddie O'Leary has confirmed that Samcro will run in the Ballymore and not the Supreme or Champion which will be music to a lot of peoples' ears.

    Probably wise now to lay some of that profit off on Betfair because I wouldn't trust that outfit as far as I could throw them!
  • as per above getabird now into 15/8 for the supreme
    and samcro now 4/6 for the ballymore
  • Eddie O'Leary has confirmed that Samcro will run in the Ballymore and not the Supreme or Champion which will be music to a lot of peoples' ears.

    Probably wise now to lay some of that profit off on Betfair because I wouldn't trust that outfit as far as I could throw them!

    Well I must say that is rather good news :)
  • on the Friday of cheltenham, few of the usual crowd couldn't make it down, family commitments etc so was going to arrange to meet at a pub in central to watch the racing and have a catch up any recommendations of any pubs in London that would show the racing?.
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